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Low chance for mid-2017 El Niño onslaught: PAGASA

Saturday, June 17, 2017 11:25 PM    Views : 944by:CJT/PNA

MANILA, June 17 -- There's still no possibility for the drought-driving El Niņo phenomenon to recur soon, the state weather bureau, PAGASA, has said.

Some international climate models say El Niņo may instead strike towards the end of the year, noted Analiza Solis, officer-in-charge of PAGASA's Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section.

"Eighteen of 25 models we also studied say ENSO-neutral conditions will likely prevail until 2017's end, however," she said this week during PAGASA's kick-off ceremony for the 2017 celebration of the annual Typhoon and Flood Awareness Week.

ENSO or the El Niņo-Southern Oscillation describes fluctuations in temperature between the ocean and atmosphere in the east-central equatorial Pacific, said the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

El Niņo and rain-driving La Niņa phenomenon are the warm and cool phases of the ENSO cycle.

Periods when neither El Niņo nor La Niņa is present are referred to as ENSO-neutral.

"ENSO-neutral is present in Tropical Pacific and favored to continue through the September-November 2017 season," said Solis, citing PAGASA's latest assessment of the matter.

Earlier, PAGASA said data indicated "nearly equal probability" for ENSO-neutral and weak El Niņo in 2017.

The bureau said the 2015-2016 El Niņo was among the strongest of its kind, fueling dry spells and droughts nationwide due to reduced rainfall in the country.

Citing data from the Department of Agriculture, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported in its website that this El Niņo episode caused USD325 million worth of total damage and production losses in crops nationwide while affecting some 413,456 farming households.

That episode also affected 556,721 hectares nationwide, noted FAO, which extended El Niņo-related assistance to the country.

However, latest climate models indicate a bleak chance for the recurrence of La Niņa this year.

"There's a higher chance for either El Niņo or ENSO-neutral conditions than for La Niņa this year," said Solis, disputing a report that rain-driving phenomenon will recur in 2017.

The last La Niņa episode in 2016's second half was a weak one, she noted.

Conditions in the Pacific eventually returned to ENSO-neutral early this year.

Source: http://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/995979

S & T Trivia

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In October 26, 1905, the Philippine Commission passed Act No. 1407 reorganizing and expanding the Bureau of Government Laboratories into the erstwhile Bureau of Science.

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