When Climate Risk Becomes Economic Risk: The Philippines, ASEAN and a Changing World – Dr. Nirmal Ganguly

CLIMATE change is usually discussed as an environmental problem. We hear about rising temperatures, stronger storms, changing rainfall, floods, droughts, and rising sea levels.

But for the Philippines, there is another way of looking at the same problem.

When a typhoon destroys a road, it is an infrastructure problem. When a flood closes a factory, it is a business problem. When drought damages a rice crop, it becomes a food and income problem. When a family loses its home, it becomes a household financial problem. When the government has to spend billions on reconstruction, it becomes a public-finance problem.

And when these things happen repeatedly, climate change becomes an economic problem.

That is why the climate debate in the Philippines needs to move beyond the environment. The real question is increasingly about how the country can protect its growth, jobs, incomes, infrastructure and development gains in a changing climate.

The real cost comes after the storm

The Philippines has no shortage of experience with natural disasters. But it is important to look beyond the immediate images of flooded streets, damaged houses and uprooted trees.

As of September 16, 2026, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council reported that damage to agriculture and infrastructure from tropical cyclones and the southwest monsoon since August had reached about ₱18.68 billion. Agricultural damage was estimated at ₱4.37 billion and infrastructure damage at ₱14.31 billion. The disasters had affected nearly 99,000 farmers and fisherfolk and damaged more than 81,000 hectares of crops.

Behind these numbers are real people.

A farmer may lose a harvest. A small shop may remain closed for several days. A worker may be unable to get to work. A family may have to borrow money to repair its home. A local government may have to divert money from another development project to repair a damaged road.

The cost of a disaster therefore does not end when the rain stops.

There is also the cost of lost production, lost income, lost working days and delayed investment.

That is the part of climate change that an economist needs to examine.

When a typhoon reaches the economy

Consider a simple example.

A bridge is damaged by a major storm. The government estimates the repair bill at ₱500 million.

That is the visible cost.

But suppose farmers on the other side of the bridge cannot bring their produce to market for several weeks. Workers cannot travel easily. Trucks have to take longer routes. Shops receive fewer customers. Food becomes more expensive.

The economic cost is now much larger than the repair bill.

This is why climate-related disasters can affect economic activity even when the physical damage appears relatively limited.

And if such disruptions happen again and again, the problem becomes more serious. Businesses may postpone investment. Families may reduce spending. Governments may have less money available for other development priorities.

Climate risk can gradually become a growth risk.

What happens to GDP?

There is an important distinction between recovering from a disaster and avoiding the economic consequences of repeated disasters.

An economy can rebuild after a typhoon. But rebuilding does not mean that the country has lost nothing.

If a newly built road has to be repaired repeatedly, resources that could have been used for a new school, hospital, irrigation system, or transport project are being used again to replace what was already built.

The World Bank Group’s Philippines Country Climate and Development Report, released on November 9, 2022, provides a sense of the potential scale of the problem. Its modeling estimated that climate-change damages could reduce the level of Philippine GDP by as much as 13.6% by 2040, relative to the relevant baseline, under the modeled climate-impact scenario. The report also estimated economic damages of up to 7.6% of GDP by 2030.

This does not mean that annual GDP growth would fall by 13.6%. It means that climate-related damage could leave the economy’s output level substantially below where it might otherwise have been.

That distinction matters.

The objective should not be to frighten people about the future. It should be to understand the economic cost of being unprepared.

Resilient infrastructure is not a luxury

This brings us to infrastructure.

When governments build roads, bridges, ports, electricity networks, water systems, schools and hospitals, they are making long-term investments.

But what happens if those investments are not designed with changing climate risks in mind?

The country may end up paying twice.

First, it pays to build the infrastructure.

Then it pays again to repair or replace it after a disaster.

There is therefore a strong economic argument for designing infrastructure to withstand the risks the country is increasingly likely to face.

An April 2026 Asian Development Bank assessment of the Laguna Lake area illustrates this broader approach. Laguna Lake supports more than 17 million people and important economic activities. The assessment emphasizes integrated, system-wide adaptation to safeguard livelihoods, ecosystems, and sustainable development.

The lesson extends beyond Laguna.

A flood-resistant road may cost more to build. A stronger drainage system may require greater initial investment. A power network designed to withstand extreme weather may be more expensive.

But the relevant question is not simply:

How much does resilience cost?

It is also:

-How much will the country lose if it does not invest in resilience?

That is a very different way of looking at development spending.

The farmer feels climate change first

For many ordinary Filipinos, the economic impact of climate change is felt not in GDP statistics but in the price of food.

Agriculture depends heavily on weather.

Too much rain can destroy crops. Too little rain can do the same. Extreme heat can reduce productivity. Floods can damage farmland, livestock, fishing and rural infrastructure.

On September 3, 2026, the Philippine Department of Agriculture reported that damage from heavy rains associated with the enhanced southwest monsoon and several tropical cyclones had reached ₱3.62 billion, affecting more than 86,000 farmers and fishers and more than 74,800 hectares of agricultural land.

The consequences do not stop with farmers.

When production falls, food supplies can tighten. Prices can rise. Families have to spend more on basic necessities. Poorer households are particularly vulnerable because food takes up a larger share of their household budgets.

This is how climate change travels from the farm to the kitchen table.

The next problem may be too little rain

There is another dimension that deserves attention.

The Philippines can move from dealing with excessive rainfall and flooding to worrying about drought.

On September 23, 2026, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, or PAGASA, warned that the ongoing Strong El Niño could intensify into a Very Strong El Niño between September and December 2026 and persist through the first half of 2027.

For farmers, this creates a difficult situation.

The problem is not simply that there is too much rain or too little rain.

It is that weather is becoming more difficult to predict and manage.

That uncertainty affects planting decisions, crop choices, farm investment and rural incomes.

It can also affect food prices and inflation.

The latest regional assessment reinforces this concern. In its September 2026 Asian Development Outlook, the Asian Development Bank identified a very strong El Niño as one of the principal risks to the region’s growth and inflation outlook. It warned that lower agricultural production and reduced hydropower could push food and energy prices higher.

Climate risk therefore enters the economy through one of the most basic things in everyday life: what people eat and what they pay for it.

Who pays when disaster strikes?

There is another question that deserves much greater attention:

Who ultimately pays for climate-related losses?

If a house, farm, shop or factory is insured, some of the financial burden can be transferred through insurance.

But many households and small businesses have limited insurance coverage.

When disaster strikes, they may have to use savings, borrow money or depend on government assistance.

The government then faces its own problem.

After a major disaster, it has to spend more on relief, reconstruction and social protection. Yet the same disaster may disrupt economic activity and reduce incomes and, potentially, government revenues.

A disaster can therefore become a fiscal shock.

This may sound like a technical financial issue.

It is not.

For an ordinary family, insurance can mean the difference between recovering and falling deeply into debt.

For government, better disaster-risk financing can mean preserving resources for schools, hospitals, infrastructure, and social protection instead of repeatedly diverting them toward emergency reconstruction.

Our cities cannot ignore the water

The economic importance of climate resilience becomes particularly visible in cities.

The Philippines is increasingly urban, and its major cities are centers of employment, commerce, manufacturing, services, transport, and investment.

When a major urban area floods, the damage goes far beyond flooded streets.

Workers cannot get to their jobs. Businesses close. Deliveries are delayed. Public transport is disrupted. Electricity and communications can be affected. Goods and equipment may be damaged.

A few hours of severe disruption can therefore affect thousands of businesses and large numbers of households.

For coastal cities, the challenge is even greater.

Flood management, drainage, land-use planning, building standards, transport systems and coastal protection need to be seen not simply as environmental measures but as economic infrastructure.

A city that can continue functioning during extreme weather is a more productive city.

Nature is also economic capital

This is where the discussion needs to go one step further.

Climate resilience is not only about building stronger concrete structures. It is also about protecting the natural systems that already perform valuable economic functions.

The Asian Development Bank’s Asia-Pacific Climate Report 2025: Unlocking Nature for Development, published in October 2025, makes this argument explicitly. It estimates that about 75% of GDP in Asia and the Pacific comes from sectors that depend moderately or heavily on nature.

Agriculture depends on soil, water and pollination. Fisheries depend on healthy marine ecosystems. Tourism depends on beaches, forests, reefs and other natural assets. Communities depend on wetlands, mangroves and forests for protection from floods, storms and erosion.

When these ecosystems deteriorate, the economic consequences can include lower productivity, higher health and disaster costs, weaker livelihoods and greater pressure on public finances.

This changes the meaning of environmental protection.

A mangrove is not simply an environmental asset. It can also act as natural coastal protection.

A healthy watershed is not simply an ecological resource. It can help regulate water flows and support agriculture and communities.

A healthy marine ecosystem is not simply a conservation objective. It supports fisheries, tourism and coastal livelihoods.

The ADB report argues that nature needs to be recognized as productive capital and brought more directly into economic planning, investment and finance.

That is highly relevant to the Philippines.

The Philippines is part of a bigger Asian story

The Philippines is not alone.

Across Asia, countries are dealing with combinations of floods, droughts, extreme heat, stronger storms, and rising sea levels.

ADB’s Asia-Pacific Climate Report 2024: Catalyzing Finance and Policy Solutions, published in October 2024, estimated that climate change could reduce GDP across developing Asia and the Pacific by 17% by 2070 under a high-end emissions scenario, with the potential loss rising to 41% by 2100.

These are modeled scenario estimates, not forecasts of what will inevitably happen. They compare projected economic outcomes under the specified climate-change scenario with a counterfactual scenario without climate change.

But they underline the scale of the economic issue.

The 2025 ADB climate report adds another dimension. If around three-quarters of the region’s GDP depends on nature, then protecting ecosystems is not separate from protecting economic growth.

The two are increasingly connected.

ASEAN has a shared economic interest

The same argument applies to ASEAN.

The Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and other ASEAN economies have different geographic and economic characteristics, but all face climate-related risks.

ASEAN is also increasingly integrated through trade, manufacturing, investment, tourism and regional supply chains.

A disruption in one country can therefore affect factories, ports, food supplies, tourism, transport and supply chains elsewhere.

Climate resilience consequently has a regional economic dimension.

The September 2026 ADB outlook illustrates this broader regional exposure. ADB says developing Southeast Asia’s growth outlook has improved somewhat, but the region remains exposed to the effects of geopolitical tensions, energy-price volatility and the strengthening El Niño. The interaction between climate, food, energy and economic conditions makes resilience increasingly a regional concern rather than simply a national one.

Nature itself also crosses borders.

Rivers, forests, coastlines, fisheries and marine ecosystems do not follow national boundaries. ADB’s 2025 climate report therefore emphasizes the importance of cooperation and planning at the appropriate spatial scale, including regional approaches where ecosystems and economic systems are interconnected.

A more resilient Philippines can therefore contribute to a more resilient ASEAN.

The difficult question: who pays?

There is, however, no easy answer.

Developing countries have limited public resources.

Governments have to finance schools, hospitals, housing, roads, public transport, social protection and other essential services.

Climate resilience requires additional investment.

It would be unrealistic to suggest that every road, building or community can immediately be protected against every possible climate risk.

The more practical approach is to identify the greatest risks and spend scarce resources where they can prevent the greatest future losses.

That means better planning.

It means better climate information.

It means stronger local governments.

It means designing infrastructure with future risks in mind.

It means valuing natural capital properly.

And it means bringing the private sector, financial institutions, and communities into the resilience effort.

Prevention can be cheaper than rebuilding

There is a simple economic lesson here.

Imagine two choices.

The first is to build infrastructure cheaply today and repeatedly repair it after every major disaster.

The second is to spend somewhat more today to make it stronger and more resilient.

The second option may appear more expensive at first.

But development policy cannot be judged only by the initial price.

The real question is the lifetime economic cost.

Money spent on resilience before a disaster may prevent much larger losses later.

The same logic applies to nature.

Restoring a mangrove, protecting a watershed or preserving a wetland may not look like a conventional infrastructure project. But if these ecosystems reduce flood exposure, protect livelihoods, support fisheries or regulate water, their economic value can extend well beyond the environmental benefits.

This is one of the important messages emerging from ADB’s 2025 climate report: nature can be treated as productive capital rather than as an economic asset that has value only after it has been converted into something else.

That is why climate adaptation should increasingly be regarded as an investment rather than merely an expenditure.

From disaster response to economic resilience

The Philippines has developed considerable experience in responding to disasters.

The next challenge is to place greater emphasis on preventing economic losses before disasters occur.

That means using climate information in agricultural planning.

It means incorporating climate risk into infrastructure decisions.

It means improving drainage and urban planning.

It means strengthening insurance and disaster-risk financing.

It means protecting forests, mangroves, watersheds, wetlands, and coastal ecosystems that provide economic and protective functions.

It means ensuring that local governments have the capacity and resources to prepare for increasingly difficult weather conditions.

And it means making climate resilience part of mainstream economic planning rather than leaving it entirely to environmental agencies.

Protecting tomorrow’s growth

The most important point is perhaps the simplest.

Economic growth is not only about producing more this year.

It is also about protecting the productive capacity that allows people to earn more, businesses to invest more and communities to improve their living standards over many years.

If repeated climate shocks destroy roads, crops, homes, businesses and public infrastructure, part of the country’s development effort is spent simply replacing what has already been built.

That is a costly way to develop.

But the reverse is also true.

If governments protect infrastructure, strengthen food systems, improve disaster-risk financing and preserve the natural assets on which communities and businesses depend, resilience can protect the foundation for future growth.

The Philippines therefore needs to increasingly treat resilience as part of economic planning.

This does not mean ignoring other development priorities. On the contrary, it means protecting those priorities from being repeatedly undermined by climate-related shocks.

For the Philippines, the economic case for climate resilience is becoming clearer.

It is about protecting infrastructure.

It is about protecting farmers and food supplies.

It is about protecting businesses and jobs.

It is about protecting public finances.

It is about protecting cities and communities.

It is also about protecting the natural assets that silently support much of the economy.

And ultimately, it is about protecting the gains that ordinary Filipinos make through their work and enterprise.

Climate change may begin with the weather.

But its consequences increasingly reach the wallet, the workplace, the dinner table, and the national budget.

That is why climate risk is becoming economic risk.

And for the Philippines, climate resilience is increasingly becoming a development investment.